May 03 2014

Arsenal versus WBA – Betting Preview

Posted by admin in Betting tips, Premier League

Arsenal came through for us again last week, winning 3-0 against Newcastle United, the same score as the result in Hull. With Everton losing on Saturday, there is no pressure on Arsenal, as they have secured 4th place and Champions League football. I still expect them to go for the win and get it.

West Brom aren’t exactly in trouble, despite being close to the relegation zone. Fulham and Cardiff both lost on Saturday and were relegated, and Norwich will surely be the team that joins them, as they have to play title chasing Chelsea at the Bridge and then Arsenal. I think West Brom may not play as hard for the win, but they will try to get a point.

So the Arsenal recovery continues, another win at home, against Newcastle, dominating and winning with some ease, 3-0 the final score. The return of Ramsey has really fired the team up, and with Ozil back too and Podolski netting regularly, it’s likely they will win their final 2 games of the season before tackling Hull in the FA Cup final.

West Brom have given up 3 goals in each of their games against Cardiff, Tottenham and Manchester City. Judging by those performances, their inability to hold a lead late in the game, it’s likely they will concede a few here.
Arsenal to win looks a banker, but with the pressure lifted I feel they can attack a bit more freely. Since losing to Aston Villa on the opening day of the season, Arsenal have turned the Emirates into a fortress, undefeated here in Premier League competition and of course that cracking FA Cup run. They should score a few goals, and I’m going to focus on who gets them.

I like Giroud to score here, but the man who is really driving Arsenal yet again is Aaron Ramsey. He’s score a few and is getting better with each game, and at the odds available I like him to get one of the 2 or 3 goals Arsenal should score.

May 01 2014

Five Reasons England Will Win the World Cup

Posted by admin in Football news and analysis

There are reasons to be positive about England’s chances at the World Cup but there is also plenty of cause for concern. We take a look at five reasons why England will win the World Cup and five more why they won’t.

Five Reasons England Will Win the World Cup

Wayne Rooney – He has held the hopes and dreams of England fans since he burst onto the scene as a 16 year old but is yet to deliver on the biggest international stage. If Rooney is at his best in Brazil then he could make the difference and deliver England to the promised land.

The Youngsters – The Golden Generation consistently failed to deliver so now it is the turn of a new collection of players to show what they can do. The likes of Ross Barkley, Raheem Sterling and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain have enjoyed fantastic seasons in the Premier League and, if they can take that kind of form to Brazil, they could inspire England to greater things.

Steven Gerrard – England’s captain has inspired Liverpool to their best league campaign for over two decades and they are now on the verge of claiming their first title since 1990. If he can provide the same kind of inspiration to the England team, and if his Liverpool teammates can perform to the same standard, then there is every chance that he will have a similar impact on the national team.

It’s About Time – We’re now up to 48 years of hurt so a trophy is long overdue for the Three Lions. The law of averages says that it has got to happen some time soon and, as far as the England fans are concerned, there is no time like the present.

No Expectations – Usually England go into a big tournament with the heavy weight of expectation on the players’ shoulders. However, after the tough draw, excitement about England’s chances has died down a little and that could allow the players the freedom to play as well as we know they can.

Five Reasons Why England Won’t Win the World Cup

Wayne Rooney – He has the potential to do something special but, if he’s not at his best, England could suffer from having to carry Rooney. His World Cup record has not been great and Alex Ferguson suggested in his autobiography that he needs time to get back to his best when he hasn’t played for a while – meaning his tournament could be over before we see the real Rooney.

Group of Death – The draw for the group stage probably couldn’t have gone any worse for England as they were picked to play against Uruguay, Italy and Costa Rica. It means that there will be at least one highly rated team going home early and, the way things stand, England look to be the most likely candidates for that early flight home.

Take Your Pick – Even if England do make it out of their group they will have to battle past a number of quality teams to make it to to the final. Unfortunately for Roy Hodgson and co, this tournament seems to be blessed with several impressive sides such as Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain and it looks like England will have to beat at least two of those sides if they want to lift the World Cup.

Penalties – When England get to the knockout stages in a major tournament it invariably goes to penalties at some point and they almost always lose. It happened against Italy in Euro 2012, Portugal in both the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2004, Argentina in the 1998 World Cup, and Germany in both the 1990 World Cup and Euro 1996. In fact, England’s latest defeat on penalties means that they now have officially the worst record on penalties for teams that have been involved in three or more shootouts.

History – No European side has ever won a World Cup in South America and England have only gone further than the quarter finals on one occasion when they didn’t host the tournament. Do they have the ability to change either of those statistics? It doesn’t seem so.

Apr 28 2014

The Labouchère System Explained

Posted by admin in Betting systems

The Labouchère system, also called the cancellation system or split martingale, is a gambling system predominantly used in roulette.

The system works because you can lose more bets than you win and still make a profit. In fact, you can win just 33.34% of the time and still be ahead. This is possible because you gradually increase the stakes with each loss. I once heard it described as a ‘watered down’ version of double or nothing betting, and that’s probably true to an extent, but I would say it’s a bit more sophisticated than that.

The major weakness of the ‘double or nothing’ strategy is that you are frequently forced to raise the stakes to unaffordable levels. If you applied this strategy starting with a $1 bet an had 14 straight losses (bad luck, but it happens), your 15th bet would have to be for $16,384. Not exactly affordable for most (I dare say your hands would be a tad sweaty by that stage!), but you probably wouldn’t get that far because $1 tables generally have a maximum bet substantially lower than that.

In essence, the Labouchere system reduces the need to stake as much, so you are better able to ‘ride out’ the bad patches. That said, it is still recommended that you have a sizeable number of chips to draw on.

Like all betting strategies, the Labouchère System is a numbers game. It is a sound strategy provided that:

1) You have enough money to keep betting – even after a long run of bad luck

2) You have not reached the table limits

If either of the above two conditions exist, you’re in trouble. Probably a lot.

However, unlike simple ‘double or nothing’ betting, the Labouchère System allows the gambler to manage their chips much more effectively and with allowance for their individual risk profile. The system also prompts you to keep track of your net wins/losses as each completed sequence will net you a predetermined profit (more on this shortly).

The system is easy to learn. The only requirements are a basic ability to add numbers and to be disciplined enough to write the numbers down accurately.

The strategy is as follows:

1) Write a sequence of increasing numbers down on a piece of paper. The sequence can be any length of increasing numbers, but we will keep things simple for the time being.

For example: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

It should be noted that adding each number in the sequence will determine how much profit you have made when you complete a sequence (i.e. 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 15, so you will make a profit of 15 chips when a sequence is completed)

2) Add up the numbers at each end of the sequence to decide what you will stake

i.e. 1 + 5 = 6

3) Bet your stake (6) on a relatively ‘even money’ bet (i.e. red or black, odds or evens).

If you win, you would cross out the first and last numbers in your sequence.

i.e 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5

Your sequence is now: 2, 3, 4

4) Again, add the first and last numbers to decide your stake. In this case, 2 + 4 = 6, so you bet 6 again.

5) Let’s say you lose this bet. You therefore add the total of the previous bet (6) to the end of the sequence and carry on the game.

So the sequence is now: 2, 3, 4, 6

As 2 + 6 = 8, and you would now bet 8

6) We’ll assume you win the next bet. You would accordingly cross out the first and last numbers: 2 , 3, 4, 6

So your sequence is now: 3, 4

You now bet 7.

7) We assume you win you next bet, crossing out the 3 & 4 and completing the sequence. You will now be ‘up’ by 15.

Of course, getting one loss and three wins like we did here would net anyone a profit. Nothing special. But you can and will make a profit even with some really bad luck (check out how by clicking here).

The biggest problem with this strategy is if you have a lot of losses you can end up with a very long sequence of numbers and no money left. The way to deal with such bad luck is to split the sequence so that the bets are taken back to a ‘manageable’ size while you grind though the run of bad luck. Learn how to split the sequence by clicking here.

The key to using this strategy successfully is to recognise that very long runs of bad luck can (and will!) occur. I cannot emphasise this enough. One of the worst things that can happen is that you get unrealistically confident that your luck must ‘turn around’ soon. Sometimes it takes a while. And it will test your nerves.

With some practice and discipline, you will learn to avoid having your nerves tested by splitting the sequence.

Apr 12 2014

A profitable betting system

Posted by admin in `Betting analysis

For a very interesting (and what is most important, for now profitable) betting system I am going to tell you. I found it while I browsed through one of the betting forums I regularly read.

This system relies mostly on the repetitive patterns and in particular on the lack of such after the first several rounds of the season in the Premier League. So, the author discovered that after the first few rounds of the season in the Premier League had been played, the result 1-1 wasn’t occurred as many times as usual.

That’s why he decided to bet with bet365 on the correct score 1-1. He selects his matches by putting some additional filters as he bet only on matches in which the opponents are close to four places in the current standings. if the odds for 1:1 proposed by bet365 wasn’t good enough he bet also with Bet at home and William Hill.

For his betting system he uses two amounts – 10 units for ordinary matches and 15 units for matches that seem more likely to end in a draw – 1:1.

What are the results just nine rounds before the end of the season? He made 12 bets with fifteen units each from which the pure profit is 149 units. The bets with ten units are 72 in which the loss is 76 units. In summary, the profit from this method of betting is 73 units.

You could say it’s super result given that this betting system doesn’t require any effort or further studies, but simply a short review of the current standings.

A curious fact is that if the stakes weren’t for the correct score, but simply for a draw in the match, the balance would be close to zero or small loss.

In any case, this system of betting on matches from the English Premier League is interesting and deserves attention. I personally think to try something similar in my future bets.

Apr 04 2014

Should we bet on soccer at all?

Posted by admin in `Betting analysis

Betting on football matches has so many flaws that it is a pure miracle why most of the bettors around the world continue betting on this sport. Exactly those deficiencies we are going to discuss in this post and I will try to point you why you should forget about betting on football matches.

The biggest of all disadvantages of betting on football matches is the fact that this is a sport where every match can end in three possible outcomes – a home win, an away win and a draw. This gives extra options to loss your bet, which should not be overlooked.

A possible solution to this problem is to try betting on Asian Handicap. In this betting way the possible outcomes of a football match are reduced to only two. It is important to know that every Asian Handicap bet has three ending options. Your bet could be a winner, it could be a loser and it can be canceled and your money would be returned. The latter happens when the team you bet for covers the margin but fails to win it. For example, a bet for Barcelona on -2 against Almeria. The match ends with a Barcelona win with 3-1. Thus the total score became 3:3 and the bet is canceled. You get your money back.

However, you must remember that Asian handicap shouldn’t be confused with the European Handicap where with the same bet for Barcelona on -2 and a final result of 3:1, it will be a loser. This is because with the European Handicap the draw don’t cancel the bet.

Another major disadvantage of football as a betting sport is the fact that it is too unpredictable. The winners in most of the matches are too often decided by a single goal. A goal could be made, but it also could be missed. A completely different story is when you bet on sports like volleyball, tennis , basketball, baseball and other. What is common with these sports is that the winner is decided after many scored points and thus the chance is eliminated as a factor in the process of deciding which team or player will be the winner in a match.

So if you bet on football matches, think again and decide whether it isn’t better to try with some other sport.

Mar 14 2014

Betting prediction for Fulham vs Newcastle United

Posted by admin in Betting tips, Premier League

Fulham welcomes Newcastle United in a match from the 30th round of the Barclays Premier League. Without any doubt for the hosts this is a crucial for their survival among the best in England match. Fulham currently ranks last in the league, with four points behind West Brom, which is on the 17th position. However, hardly the hosts could want a better opponent in such crucial moment, because Newcastle is not playing for anything in the championship, which is clearly visible by their last results.

After an excellent start the Alan Pardew’s players made a series of seven losses in their last 10 matches. However, It is important to note, that Newcastle took victories in their last two games, which indicates that they will not easily give up to the hosts. It is undoubtedly clear that the class of the visitors in this match is higher than the one of the home team’s players and their chances (if both teams play with equal motivation) would be higher.

This can be seen from the odds offered by the world bookmakers who suggest very equal match with a slight advantage for the visitors of Newcastle. Bet at home offers odds for an away win of 2.3, while William Hill and bet365 offer 2.4. The draw offers are between 3.3 and 3.5,while the chances for Fulham to grab the win are highest rated by Bet at home – 3.

The motivation in this kind of matches is generally one of the leading factors and I would not be surprised Fulham to win this match. The higher odds for that to happen allow a good bet on Draw no bet. William Hill offers odds for such bet on 2.05. I fully believe that such match in the long run won’t be lost by relegation-threatened team in more than half of the cases and that is why I will make a bet for a DNB win for Fulham.

Again, I’m not sure that this bet will be successful, but I do know that the chances for the host not to lose this match are bigger than 50%.

Feb 18 2014

What is the Best Sports Betting System?

Posted by admin in Betting systems

One of the most frequent questions people ask me is “What is the best sports betting system?” It’s a question that I am reluctant to answer. Why?

Because generally sports betting systems are not consistent.

Now let’s get one thing straight. The bonus bagging product which I reviewed on this site is not betting system. It is a betting service that follows an exact formula to extract money from bookmakers using bonus funds. I can vouch that it is risk-free and that following the instructions will guarantee a profit.

On the other hand, I would find difficulty in claiming a sports betting system is risk-free. They are not. Since you are not betting on all outcomes then they cannot be. When we talk about a betting system we are talking about placing bets and gambling on the basis of a strategy. We all hope that betting systems are not based around whims and streaks but rather created by experts with access to extremely intricate knowledge in their field. The reality is however that even the so-called experts get it wrong.

Sport is unpredictable and bookmakers exist to take our money.

There’s a reason that the “best betting systems” can demonstrate exceptional results. That reason is selective data. Like in many walks of life, we only hear about the success stories and rarely hear about the negatives. When a friend of mine used to work in a local bookmakers he got to meet a variety of in-the-know gentlemen. I lost count of the amount of times I was told that he had won some money thanks to a hot tip from one of these aforementioned folk. That’s brilliant you might be thinking? Right. But the reality is that I was only got to hear about the glory days. Good news spreads a lot faster than the bad in the gambling world. To every successful pick there were probably 5 or 6 bad ones. I’m 100% sure that said friend has financed the bookmakers coffers far more than the bookmaker has delivered him wins.

People are always keen to relay their betting success stories. It vindicates their decision to gamble. The losses are swept under the carpet. People advertising sports betting systems are no exception.

Throughout this site it is my intention to study closely the ‘best sports betting systems’ and identify their strengths and weaknesses. My mind is open to discovering that lives up to its hype but I am always a little sceptical when reading long sales pages telling me how I’m going to need a new wheel barrow to carry my wads of cash around in.

There is a lot of information on this site with regard to intelligent arbitrage betting (and matched betting) which are methods I can vouch for as being capable of producing guaranteed results. For everything else I’ll need a fair bit of convincing but rest assured when/if I find something I’ll be the first to let you know!

Mar 05 2013

Top Ten Betting Mistakes

Posted by admin in `Betting analysis

The following points are areas of betting where many punters often get it wrong. My views arise from long personal experience and years of communication with successful and unsuccessful punters alike.

My aim here is to highlight these common areas of failure in the hope that I can speed up your learning curve towards successful betting.

Read the following thoughts and you may be able to side step many of the pot holes others have fallen into in the past.

1) Failure to Use Betting Banks

Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses.

Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a “Betting Bank” that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters.

The size of your betting bank will of course be dependant upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available. An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone.

The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels.

A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital.

With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.

2) Failure to Stake Correctly

It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use.

You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank.

Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results.

Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example. Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row!

Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run.

in essence key to winning money is to manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you. With a long term profitable approach at level stakes you need to plan for and anticipate lean or losing periods.

3) Chasing Losses

Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit.

Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price
up every race. Punters don’t have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in ,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand. If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win.

Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to
“chase” losses or “play up” winnings. Its no coincidence that the
bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day . There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as “The Last Race”.

4) Lack of Value Appreciation

Appreciation of “value” in a bet is core to long term success.
To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race.

There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding
where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say “At least I had some value”. There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better “value” you have . The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that.

Everyone has this “Foresight” on occasions, it is a game
about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can’t bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects. That’s only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank.

You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges.

Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.

5) Greed For Instant Wealth

Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum.

Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker’s favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet.

Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% !

Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.

It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is ‘best’. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option.

You may say that many “Pros,” do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that’s only because they know there is plenty of “Dead” money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don’t understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between.

You can’t approach this as a “Get Rich Quick ” scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering “special offers”, “enhanced terms ” and “bonus offers”. You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why . They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra’s on a win or each way single. Ask
yourself why .

6) Lack of Discipline

Lack of Discipline is the big hurdle for punters trying to turn a losing
hobby into a winning one. Bookmakers know that. That’s why in every
betting office you can bet on numbers, lotteries, ball games, racing from all over the globe with horses nobody has heard of before and even now computer animated, or as they call it, virtual racing.

Bookmakers just believe that its a case of punters sitting all day betting on what ever is put in front of them and sadly they are right in many cases .They are simply thrill seeking and don’t care what they bet on, as long as they can bet. There is no methodology at all and many betting office regulars are simply a bunch of headless chickens prepared to pay long term for the warming buzz of the occasional win.

Even more experienced regular gamblers who are savvy enough to turn down bets that they know are stupid always let themselves
down by continually bleeding their profits with a fun tenner here and a fun tenner there.

It takes great discipline to NOT bet at times. It takes discipline to walk away from a horse when the price isn’t right. It takes discipline to say no to that small fun bet. It takes discipline to keep your money in your pocket and deny yourself the emotional buzz of watching your runner.

Punters come in all shapes and sizes. Even the shrewder punters who could win at the game, fall into the trap of lack of discipline
of study. After a winning period they forget that what made them winners in the first place, was the effort they put in. They fall victim to
over confidence, laziness and indiscipline.

Being a long term successful punter is like swimming against the tide. It takes an effort to stay still, even greater effort to move ahead and as soon as you relax or slack off you start to go backwards.

7) Emotion

Betting is a lonely game. Its also a highly skilled game. Emotion
undermines success in many ways . There is comfort in knowing that as a sheep when you are wrong it is not your fault as you were simply doing what everyone else was doing. With betting, the laws of market supply and demand, dictate that long term, the sheep will get fleeced. Emotion neutralises discipline and long proven successful practices. The result of any isolated race has little or no relation to races just before that or just after that . Races should be viewed in isolation from each other. We are all emotional in betting but the players at the top of the tree have this down to a fine art and can control those emotions. Other punters have long since been conditioned by bookmakers to EXPECT to lose rather than win.

They have an in built psychological factor that makes them feel like
losers and they have been conditioned to losing by years of doing so.

Over 95% of punters are flawed emotionally. Examples of emotive gambling include punters following a horse ,trainer or a jockey blind . The “Hype” horses are cannon fodder for emotional punters. They may also follow tipsters blind as they “hate” the thought of missing out on a winner.

They pay no attention to the changing conditions of a race that may follow non runners or the ground changing. They misunderstand confidence and can’t cope with a lack of confidence. Emotion also prevents people from advanced betting subjects such laying , hedging and arbitrages. Emotion forces some punters to bet horses with certain names that remind them of loved ones. Names such as “Long Tall Sally ” and “Susan’s Pride ” attract many to them just for a name that’s relevant to them .

Most punters have a grudge against their own money and winning and being successful is alien to them. Emotional punters lose their heads in barren times and fail to capitalise on winning runs. They mess about with systems and staking plans that make no sense. The more emotion you can rule out of your betting , the more successful you will become . You have to view everyone in the game as your enemy and as people trying to take your hard earned money away from you in the same way as you would a pickpocket . Once you can master your emotions you have made the first big step to betting profitably .

8) The Grass is Greener

The grass is rarely Greener on the Other Side. The truth is that the grass that isn’t working for you has not been grown, cultivated or looked after properly. Many punters change approaches and methods so quickly that they don’t give any method a true test . If they find a system that works they don’t continue after a few bad results . It is the same as gamblers who write down every bet they have . Once they have a few losers they often lose the heart to do this and stop doing so and move on to another area .

They are like children with new toys at Christmas . They never stay with any method long enough to prosper . They always feel the” Grass is Greener” , when in truth the “Grass” they are using has been abused and left to deteriorate.

They want the next Big “new idea ” or “method ” and that doesn’t work either as the fault lies not in the Grass, but the Gardener .
They have no long term consistency in their betting and are constantly tinkering with what wasn’t broke or moving on in search of the holy grail before a full evaluation of what they are currently examining has been completed.

A competition to win best garden will be won by the person who
can spend most time in the garden and master its challenges, the
gardener who is prepared to care about his garden and invest in the tools that will help his garden grow and keep the weeds at bay.

It’s the same with betting. You will do far better long term if you can make a concentrated effort of learning and research in one key area rather than flitting from this to that.

9) Laziness

Most punters are LAZY! They have religiously followed a doctrine of poor planning and lack of research. They refuse to study and spend hours looking at how they can win at betting. They refuse to invest in the game and invest in their own learning . You cant refuse to spend money, just look at the racing for 30 minutes and expect to win long term. You simply can’t get away with that in the hardest trade of all , Winning Money at Betting. If it was that easy , then millions would do it .You must either invest in your betting , or pay someone to do just that .

Natural human tendency is to try and get away with the least amount of effort. Lazy punters are cannon fodder for the bookmakers. They make little or no effort in their selection process nor make an effort to extract maximum returns from their bets. Those who put the most work in are the more likely to succeed.

My philosophy is simple. I believe that if a bookmaker, journalist or odds compiler spends 3 hours on a race then I’ll spend 6 hours on that race to gain the edge.

The famous golfer Gary Player once said “The Harder I Work the Luckier I Get”. That is true about both golf and betting .Most people can’t spend 12 hours a day studying betting as they have families, jobs, commitments and lead their own lives. That is what you pay us for. We do that study for you and re-invest money in our betting so that we can find every edge possible to Help You Win.

10) Stupidity!

Amazingly most punters fail to learn from their mistakes. They continue for years making the same basic errors time and time again. Pure stupidity.

Strive to improve your betting performance by continually learning from the mistakes and weakness is your game.

Your bookmaker may have been laughing at you for years. You have it in your power however to improve your betting and hopefully wipe that smile from his face for good.

Oct 13 2012

Five easy steps to place your first horse racing bet

Posted by admin in Betting on other sports

1. Find a race and sports book that offers simulcasting and parimutuel betting. Most major casino ‘books’ offer horse betting and simulcast the major domestic thoroughbred and harness tracks. Some also offer quarter-horse and greyhound wagering.

2. Study your racing form, program and tip sheets and make your selections. Racing forms such as the Daily Racing Form and printed track programs are usually available at the ticket counter free or at a reduced charge.

3. As the race approaches, watch the simulcast screens and check your selections on the track’s ‘tote board’ for the latest odds, payouts and to ensure that your horse (or horses) haven’t been ‘scratched’ (withdrawn from the race).

4. Go to the ticket writer and announce the name of the track you wish to bet, for example “Santa Anita”. Then the number of the race you wish to bet, for example “race number three”. Then the type of bet. This can be a simple bet such as ‘win’ – a wager that your horse will finish first; ‘place’ – a wager that your horse will finish either first or second; or ‘show’ – a wager that your horse will finish first, second or third. There are also a number of ‘exotic’ bets that are beyond the scope of this article. Once you have announced the track, race and type of bet, tell the writer which horse you have selected by number and the amount of your bet. Putting it all together – “Santa Anita, race three, two dollars to win on horse five”. Placing your bet MUST be completed before the last horse enters the starting gate.

5. Check your ticket for accuracy. All of the information you gave the ticket writer must appear on your ticket exactly as you announced it – track, race, horse, type of bet and amount. If you find an error you must tell the writer at this time in order for him/her to void that ticket and issue a correct one.

Placing your bet is the easy part, selecting which horse to bet – that’s the hard part. Watch for future articles on exotic wagering and race horse handicapping. But for now, just sit back and enjoy the race. In most race and sports books, you can enjoy the races AND your favorite sporting events on the big screens.

Jun 16 2011

5 Reasons Why Arsene Wenger Should Retain Samir Nasri

Posted by admin in Football news and analysis

Arsene Wenger will be under immense pressure in the summer and by all reports, it is likely that this summer will be busy for the Gunners. There are a number of players who could leave the club while some sections of the media report that Arsenal are tracking a number of players in the summer. It is certain that the manager and his team are desperate to end this frustrating trophy drought and he will try to add quality players to the squad.

With Manchester United and Liverpool already active in the transfer market with the signings of Phil Jones and Jordan Henderson respectively, it is important that the Gunners strengthen in this summer. It is certain that Liverpool and Tottenham will try to break into the Champions League spots in the next season, which will make it more competitive next year.

Arsenal’s manager should not only ensure that they keep their place in the top four but also challenge for the title and win trophies in the next season. It will be one of the most important seasons in Wenger’s Arsenal career and being an intelligent man, he will understand and analyze where his team went wrong in the last season.

It is important to strengthen in the summer but it is even more important to retain the best players of the team for the next season. It is uncertain whether Samir Nasri, Gael Clichy and Cesc Fabregas will be in an Arsenal jersey next season because they are integral members of this young squad. Nasri, in particular, had an excellent season last year and can progress to reach further heights in the next season.

However, he has only one year on his contract and he has not renewed his deal due to a financial disagreement according to Wenger. He is certainly going to attract various clubs from Europe but his agent has made it clear that the contract negotiations have not stalled and that talks are still ongoing. Here is five reasons why Arsenal should give in to Nasri’s demands in order to keep him at the Emirates.

1. Uncertain Future of Cesc Fabregas

Though Fabregas is arguably the best player in the current Arsenal squad, he has always been linked with a move to Barcelona and has not quashed the possibility of moving in the near future. Fabregas has been frustrated by the lack of trophies during his time at Arsenal and Barcelona will try to sign their former youth player.

Samir Nasri is amongst the best talents at Arsenal and it will be a huge blow if he does leave the club. He has shown that he is immensely talented but he will have to be more consistent to be regarded as a world class player. However, if Arsenal does lose him, it could also result in some senior players like Fabregas being unhappy with the club because in the recent past, they have sold a large number of their best players.

Though Nasri staying does not guarantee Fabregas will stay, it ensures that the mood in the camp is optimistic and that the team has a better chance of winning trophies. Also, Nasri’s role could be enhanced if Fabregas leaves the club because he is a player who can create goals from nothing. When Fabregas and Van Persie were injured for large parts of the first half of the season, it was the Frenchman who took on the responsibility of scoring goals and ensuring that the Gunners stayed in the title race till the duo returned to fitness.

2. Versatility and Possible Replacement for Fabregas in the Future

Arsenal have had problems with injuries and it has been one of the reasons for Arsenal’s six year long trophy drought. However, during the course of the season, every single team in the Premiership will encounter injuries but having quality depth in the side helps to cope with injuries. Versatile players do play an important role in the team because they can cover for another position as well if needed.

Arsenal’s Samir Nasri is amongst the most versatile players at the club and can play on both wings, central midfielder and also as a central attacking midfielder. The current squad has Andrei Arshavin, Samir Nasri and Theo Walcott as wingers and all the three are quality players though Arshavin has come under some criticism despite possessing impressive statistics. Nasri can provide quality depth and could be integral to the squad next season.

If Fabregas does leave in the summer, Arsene Wenger could utilize Nasri as the attacking midfielder and ease Ramsey into the role with further appearances from the bench and in the cup ties. Arsenal have been linked with both Gervinho and Hazard and if the Gunners do sign one of the wingers, the manager can choose two wingers from the three.

3. The Best of Nasri is Yet to Come

Though many supporters feel that Nasri’s demands could be unreasonable especially only after half a season of superb performances, it is undeniable that he is amongst the most talented youngsters in the world. At the age of 23, he is set to move to the next stage of his career and it is likely that he will continue to improve.

Also, Nasri has taken his time to adjust to the demands of the Premiership but now, looks accustomed to the pace and the physicality of the league and has had his best season for Arsenal since he joined in 2008. The tricky midfielder was rated as one of the brightest products in the French league at a young age and was touted to be the next “Zizou” by some sections of the media and supporters.

He has also established himself as a starter for the France National team and will look to improve to become a world class player. He has come a long way since he joined Arsenal and it is expected that he will only get better with experience.

4. Ashley Young to be given £130k per week!

According to the Mirror, Ashley Young will be paid a sum of £130k per week if he signs for Manchester United. However, at Arsenal, Cesc Fabregas, who is the highest paid player at the club, is reportedly paid 110k per week. However, Fabregas is arguably more talented and has proven himself to be a world class player. This is not about criticizing the wages earned by other club’s footballers; it is about the inflated wages earned by modern day footballers.

Arsenal will soon having to increase the wages of their best players in order to keep them at the Emirates. Though fans expect their club’s players to be loyal, it is difficult not to accept a huge pay-rise from a club which is just as ambitious as the current club. Some players are loyal to their clubs like Paul Scholes but there are many who will swap their clubs if they get more wages and a shot at winning trophies like Sol Campbell.

Nasri will demand higher wages to stay at the Emirates and also put pressure on the board and Arsene Wenger to sign players who can help them win trophies. The Board and Arsene Wenger (if he is involved) should take responsibility in allowing this sort of a situation to happen with two of the most important players for Arsenal (Gael Clichy and Samir Nasri). It is time that Arsenal cut down the wages on some of their less important players, sell youngsters who are not going to make it at Arsenal and increase the wages of their best players.

5. Losing Promising Players Will Not Help the Club Move Forward

Arsenal are in the midst of a frustrating trophy drought and it is certainly important to retain the best players at the club. The Gunners are uncertain about the futures of Gael Clichy, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas who are very important for the club and also, Ivan Gazidis confirmed that there will be a “turnover” of the squad in the summer at the Q&A session.

The Gunners could not win the title last season and it is important that they build on the positives of the season but if they lose Samir Nasri due to wrangling over contract issues, it will mean that they would have to sign his replacement and it is likely that any possible replacement would take time to adjust at the club.

With the fans frustrated by the lack of trophies, it is important that they win trophies in the next season and losing their best players is not going to help them. Nasri is certainly one of the players who is important to Arsenal in the long term and is one of the few world class talents at the Emirates. Though his demands might seem unreasonable to some, it is important for the club to retain him in order to win trophies because if they do not win trophies, they will have to encounter the exodus of several other players as well.