Apr 28 2014

Posted by Betting systems

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The Labouchère system, also called the cancellation system or split martingale, is a gambling system predominantly used in roulette.

The system works because you can lose more bets than you win and still make a profit. In fact, you can win just 33.34% of the time and still be ahead. This is possible because you gradually increase the stakes with each loss. I once heard it described as a ‘watered down’ version of double or nothing betting, and that’s probably true to an extent, but I would say it’s a bit more sophisticated than that.

The major weakness of the ‘double or nothing’ strategy is that you are frequently forced to raise the stakes to unaffordable levels. If you applied this strategy starting with a $1 bet an had 14 straight losses (bad luck, but it happens), your 15th bet would have to be for $16,384. Not exactly affordable for most (I dare say your hands would be a tad sweaty by that stage!), but you probably wouldn’t get that far because $1 tables generally have a maximum bet substantially lower than that.

In essence, the Labouchere system reduces the need to stake as much, so you are better able to ‘ride out’ the bad patches. That said, it is still recommended that you have a sizeable number of chips to draw on.

Like all betting strategies, the Labouchère System is a numbers game. It is a sound strategy provided that:

1) You have enough money to keep betting – even after a long run of bad luck

2) You have not reached the table limits

If either of the above two conditions exist, you’re in trouble. Probably a lot.

However, unlike simple ‘double or nothing’ betting, the Labouchère System allows the gambler to manage their chips much more effectively and with allowance for their individual risk profile. The system also prompts you to keep track of your net wins/losses as each completed sequence will net you a predetermined profit (more on this shortly).

The system is easy to learn. The only requirements are a basic ability to add numbers and to be disciplined enough to write the numbers down accurately.

The strategy is as follows:

1) Write a sequence of increasing numbers down on a piece of paper. The sequence can be any length of increasing numbers, but we will keep things simple for the time being.

For example: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

It should be noted that adding each number in the sequence will determine how much profit you have made when you complete a sequence (i.e. 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 15, so you will make a profit of 15 chips when a sequence is completed)

2) Add up the numbers at each end of the sequence to decide what you will stake

i.e. 1 + 5 = 6

3) Bet your stake (6) on a relatively ‘even money’ bet (i.e. red or black, odds or evens).

If you win, you would cross out the first and last numbers in your sequence.

i.e 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5

Your sequence is now: 2, 3, 4

4) Again, add the first and last numbers to decide your stake. In this case, 2 + 4 = 6, so you bet 6 again.

5) Let’s say you lose this bet. You therefore add the total of the previous bet (6) to the end of the sequence and carry on the game.

So the sequence is now: 2, 3, 4, 6

As 2 + 6 = 8, and you would now bet 8

6) We’ll assume you win the next bet. You would accordingly cross out the first and last numbers: 2 , 3, 4, 6

So your sequence is now: 3, 4

You now bet 7.

7) We assume you win you next bet, crossing out the 3 & 4 and completing the sequence. You will now be ‘up’ by 15.

Of course, getting one loss and three wins like we did here would net anyone a profit. Nothing special. But you can and will make a profit even with some really bad luck (check out how by clicking here).

The biggest problem with this strategy is if you have a lot of losses you can end up with a very long sequence of numbers and no money left. The way to deal with such bad luck is to split the sequence so that the bets are taken back to a ‘manageable’ size while you grind though the run of bad luck. Learn how to split the sequence by clicking here.

The key to using this strategy successfully is to recognise that very long runs of bad luck can (and will!) occur. I cannot emphasise this enough. One of the worst things that can happen is that you get unrealistically confident that your luck must ‘turn around’ soon. Sometimes it takes a while. And it will test your nerves.

With some practice and discipline, you will learn to avoid having your nerves tested by splitting the sequence.

Apr 12 2014

Posted by `Betting analysis

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For a very interesting (and what is most important, for now profitable) betting system I am going to tell you. I found it while I browsed through one of the betting forums I regularly read.

This system relies mostly on the repetitive patterns and in particular on the lack of such after the first several rounds of the season in the Premier League. So, the author discovered that after the first few rounds of the season in the Premier League had been played, the result 1-1 wasn’t occurred as many times as usual.

That’s why he decided to bet with bet365 on the correct score 1-1. He selects his matches by putting some additional filters as he bet only on matches in which the opponents are close to four places in the current standings. if the odds for 1:1 proposed by bet365 wasn’t good enough he bet also with Bet at home and William Hill.

For his betting system he uses two amounts – 10 units for ordinary matches and 15 units for matches that seem more likely to end in a draw – 1:1.

What are the results just nine rounds before the end of the season? He made 12 bets with fifteen units each from which the pure profit is 149 units. The bets with ten units are 72 in which the loss is 76 units. In summary, the profit from this method of betting is 73 units.

You could say it’s super result given that this betting system doesn’t require any effort or further studies, but simply a short review of the current standings.

A curious fact is that if the stakes weren’t for the correct score, but simply for a draw in the match, the balance would be close to zero or small loss.

In any case, this system of betting on matches from the English Premier League is interesting and deserves attention. I personally think to try something similar in my future bets.

Apr 04 2014

Posted by `Betting analysis

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Betting on football matches has so many flaws that it is a pure miracle why most of the bettors around the world continue betting on this sport. Exactly those deficiencies we are going to discuss in this post and I will try to point you why you should forget about betting on football matches.

The biggest of all disadvantages of betting on football matches is the fact that this is a sport where every match can end in three possible outcomes – a home win, an away win and a draw. This gives extra options to loss your bet, which should not be overlooked.

A possible solution to this problem is to try betting on Asian Handicap. In this betting way the possible outcomes of a football match are reduced to only two. It is important to know that every Asian Handicap bet has three ending options. Your bet could be a winner, it could be a loser and it can be canceled and your money would be returned. The latter happens when the team you bet for covers the margin but fails to win it. For example, a bet for Barcelona on -2 against Almeria. The match ends with a Barcelona win with 3-1. Thus the total score became 3:3 and the bet is canceled. You get your money back.

However, you must remember that Asian handicap shouldn’t be confused with the European Handicap where with the same bet for Barcelona on -2 and a final result of 3:1, it will be a loser. This is because with the European Handicap the draw don’t cancel the bet.

Another major disadvantage of football as a betting sport is the fact that it is too unpredictable. The winners in most of the matches are too often decided by a single goal. A goal could be made, but it also could be missed. A completely different story is when you bet on sports like volleyball, tennis , basketball, baseball and other. What is common with these sports is that the winner is decided after many scored points and thus the chance is eliminated as a factor in the process of deciding which team or player will be the winner in a match.

So if you bet on football matches, think again and decide whether it isn’t better to try with some other sport.