Apr 12 2014

A profitable betting system

Posted by admin in `Betting analysis

For a very interesting (and what is most important, for now profitable) betting system I am going to tell you. I found it while I browsed through one of the betting forums I regularly read.

This system relies mostly on the repetitive patterns and in particular on the lack of such after the first several rounds of the season in the Premier League. So, the author discovered that after the first few rounds of the season in the Premier League had been played, the result 1-1 wasn’t occurred as many times as usual.

That’s why he decided to bet with bet365 on the correct score 1-1. He selects his matches by putting some additional filters as he bet only on matches in which the opponents are close to four places in the current standings. if the odds for 1:1 proposed by bet365 wasn’t good enough he bet also with Bet at home and William Hill.

For his betting system he uses two amounts – 10 units for ordinary matches and 15 units for matches that seem more likely to end in a draw – 1:1.

What are the results just nine rounds before the end of the season? He made 12 bets with fifteen units each from which the pure profit is 149 units. The bets with ten units are 72 in which the loss is 76 units. In summary, the profit from this method of betting is 73 units.

You could say it’s super result given that this betting system doesn’t require any effort or further studies, but simply a short review of the current standings.

A curious fact is that if the stakes weren’t for the correct score, but simply for a draw in the match, the balance would be close to zero or small loss.

In any case, this system of betting on matches from the English Premier League is interesting and deserves attention. I personally think to try something similar in my future bets.

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Apr 04 2014

Should we bet on soccer at all?

Posted by admin in `Betting analysis

Betting on football matches has so many flaws that it is a pure miracle why most of the bettors around the world continue betting on this sport. Exactly those deficiencies we are going to discuss in this post and I will try to point you why you should forget about betting on football matches.

The biggest of all disadvantages of betting on football matches is the fact that this is a sport where every match can end in three possible outcomes – a home win, an away win and a draw. This gives extra options to loss your bet, which should not be overlooked.

A possible solution to this problem is to try betting on Asian Handicap. In this betting way the possible outcomes of a football match are reduced to only two. It is important to know that every Asian Handicap bet has three ending options. Your bet could be a winner, it could be a loser and it can be canceled and your money would be returned. The latter happens when the team you bet for covers the margin but fails to win it. For example, a bet for Barcelona on -2 against Almeria. The match ends with a Barcelona win with 3-1. Thus the total score became 3:3 and the bet is canceled. You get your money back.

However, you must remember that Asian handicap shouldn’t be confused with the European Handicap where with the same bet for Barcelona on -2 and a final result of 3:1, it will be a loser. This is because with the European Handicap the draw don’t cancel the bet.

Another major disadvantage of football as a betting sport is the fact that it is too unpredictable. The winners in most of the matches are too often decided by a single goal. A goal could be made, but it also could be missed. A completely different story is when you bet on sports like volleyball, tennis , basketball, baseball and other. What is common with these sports is that the winner is decided after many scored points and thus the chance is eliminated as a factor in the process of deciding which team or player will be the winner in a match.

So if you bet on football matches, think again and decide whether it isn’t better to try with some other sport.

Mar 05 2013

Top Ten Betting Mistakes

Posted by admin in `Betting analysis

The following points are areas of betting where many punters often get it wrong. My views arise from long personal experience and years of communication with successful and unsuccessful punters alike.

My aim here is to highlight these common areas of failure in the hope that I can speed up your learning curve towards successful betting.

Read the following thoughts and you may be able to side step many of the pot holes others have fallen into in the past.

1) Failure to Use Betting Banks

Most gamblers fail to understand that the best method of achieving a healthy and sustained long term profit from racing is to set aside a sum of money away from your main finances, solely for the betting of horses.

Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a “Betting Bank” that has built -in advantages that can help you. It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters.

The size of your betting bank will of course be dependant upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available. An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone.

The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels.

A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital.

With a fixed sum of capital available you now move on to the next reason for failure.

2) Failure to Stake Correctly

It is vital that you consider your betting bank as capped in amount. You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use.

You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a sufficient number of units in your betting bank.

Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results.

Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example. Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row!

Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run.

in essence key to winning money is to manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you. With a long term profitable approach at level stakes you need to plan for and anticipate lean or losing periods.

3) Chasing Losses

Chasing losses at first sight may appear to be an easy way to guarantee an eventual profit but the true story is it is a game for fools and statistically will not work unless you generate an overall level stakes profit.

Chasing losses is a game for the ill informed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price
up every race. Punters don’t have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in ,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand. If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win.

Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to
“chase” losses or “play up” winnings. Its no coincidence that the
bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day . There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you have circumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as “The Last Race”.

4) Lack of Value Appreciation

Appreciation of “value” in a bet is core to long term success.
To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race.

There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding
where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say “At least I had some value”. There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. A 33/1 chance may be diabolical value yet a very short priced favorite may be supreme value. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better “value” you have . The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that.

Everyone has this “Foresight” on occasions, it is a game
about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can’t bet winner. The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects. That’s only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank.

You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges.

Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits.

5) Greed For Instant Wealth

Many punters seek the thrill of a life changing bet that will produce huge gains of instant wealth for a small outlay. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum.

Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets. Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, and Goliath. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker’s favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet.

Say you select any random 5/1 selection. If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of 15%. Taking two such selections however and betting them in a win double, the bookmakers profit margin rises to about 30% !

Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate.

It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is ‘best’. Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option.

You may say that many “Pros,” do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that’s only because they know there is plenty of “Dead” money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don’t understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between.

You can’t approach this as a “Get Rich Quick ” scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering “special offers”, “enhanced terms ” and “bonus offers”. You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why . They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra’s on a win or each way single. Ask
yourself why .

6) Lack of Discipline

Lack of Discipline is the big hurdle for punters trying to turn a losing
hobby into a winning one. Bookmakers know that. That’s why in every
betting office you can bet on numbers, lotteries, ball games, racing from all over the globe with horses nobody has heard of before and even now computer animated, or as they call it, virtual racing.

Bookmakers just believe that its a case of punters sitting all day betting on what ever is put in front of them and sadly they are right in many cases .They are simply thrill seeking and don’t care what they bet on, as long as they can bet. There is no methodology at all and many betting office regulars are simply a bunch of headless chickens prepared to pay long term for the warming buzz of the occasional win.

Even more experienced regular gamblers who are savvy enough to turn down bets that they know are stupid always let themselves
down by continually bleeding their profits with a fun tenner here and a fun tenner there.

It takes great discipline to NOT bet at times. It takes discipline to walk away from a horse when the price isn’t right. It takes discipline to say no to that small fun bet. It takes discipline to keep your money in your pocket and deny yourself the emotional buzz of watching your runner.

Punters come in all shapes and sizes. Even the shrewder punters who could win at the game, fall into the trap of lack of discipline
of study. After a winning period they forget that what made them winners in the first place, was the effort they put in. They fall victim to
over confidence, laziness and indiscipline.

Being a long term successful punter is like swimming against the tide. It takes an effort to stay still, even greater effort to move ahead and as soon as you relax or slack off you start to go backwards.

7) Emotion

Betting is a lonely game. Its also a highly skilled game. Emotion
undermines success in many ways . There is comfort in knowing that as a sheep when you are wrong it is not your fault as you were simply doing what everyone else was doing. With betting, the laws of market supply and demand, dictate that long term, the sheep will get fleeced. Emotion neutralises discipline and long proven successful practices. The result of any isolated race has little or no relation to races just before that or just after that . Races should be viewed in isolation from each other. We are all emotional in betting but the players at the top of the tree have this down to a fine art and can control those emotions. Other punters have long since been conditioned by bookmakers to EXPECT to lose rather than win.

They have an in built psychological factor that makes them feel like
losers and they have been conditioned to losing by years of doing so.

Over 95% of punters are flawed emotionally. Examples of emotive gambling include punters following a horse ,trainer or a jockey blind . The “Hype” horses are cannon fodder for emotional punters. They may also follow tipsters blind as they “hate” the thought of missing out on a winner.

They pay no attention to the changing conditions of a race that may follow non runners or the ground changing. They misunderstand confidence and can’t cope with a lack of confidence. Emotion also prevents people from advanced betting subjects such laying , hedging and arbitrages. Emotion forces some punters to bet horses with certain names that remind them of loved ones. Names such as “Long Tall Sally ” and “Susan’s Pride ” attract many to them just for a name that’s relevant to them .

Most punters have a grudge against their own money and winning and being successful is alien to them. Emotional punters lose their heads in barren times and fail to capitalise on winning runs. They mess about with systems and staking plans that make no sense. The more emotion you can rule out of your betting , the more successful you will become . You have to view everyone in the game as your enemy and as people trying to take your hard earned money away from you in the same way as you would a pickpocket . Once you can master your emotions you have made the first big step to betting profitably .

8) The Grass is Greener

The grass is rarely Greener on the Other Side. The truth is that the grass that isn’t working for you has not been grown, cultivated or looked after properly. Many punters change approaches and methods so quickly that they don’t give any method a true test . If they find a system that works they don’t continue after a few bad results . It is the same as gamblers who write down every bet they have . Once they have a few losers they often lose the heart to do this and stop doing so and move on to another area .

They are like children with new toys at Christmas . They never stay with any method long enough to prosper . They always feel the” Grass is Greener” , when in truth the “Grass” they are using has been abused and left to deteriorate.

They want the next Big “new idea ” or “method ” and that doesn’t work either as the fault lies not in the Grass, but the Gardener .
They have no long term consistency in their betting and are constantly tinkering with what wasn’t broke or moving on in search of the holy grail before a full evaluation of what they are currently examining has been completed.

A competition to win best garden will be won by the person who
can spend most time in the garden and master its challenges, the
gardener who is prepared to care about his garden and invest in the tools that will help his garden grow and keep the weeds at bay.

It’s the same with betting. You will do far better long term if you can make a concentrated effort of learning and research in one key area rather than flitting from this to that.

9) Laziness

Most punters are LAZY! They have religiously followed a doctrine of poor planning and lack of research. They refuse to study and spend hours looking at how they can win at betting. They refuse to invest in the game and invest in their own learning . You cant refuse to spend money, just look at the racing for 30 minutes and expect to win long term. You simply can’t get away with that in the hardest trade of all , Winning Money at Betting. If it was that easy , then millions would do it .You must either invest in your betting , or pay someone to do just that .

Natural human tendency is to try and get away with the least amount of effort. Lazy punters are cannon fodder for the bookmakers. They make little or no effort in their selection process nor make an effort to extract maximum returns from their bets. Those who put the most work in are the more likely to succeed.

My philosophy is simple. I believe that if a bookmaker, journalist or odds compiler spends 3 hours on a race then I’ll spend 6 hours on that race to gain the edge.

The famous golfer Gary Player once said “The Harder I Work the Luckier I Get”. That is true about both golf and betting .Most people can’t spend 12 hours a day studying betting as they have families, jobs, commitments and lead their own lives. That is what you pay us for. We do that study for you and re-invest money in our betting so that we can find every edge possible to Help You Win.

10) Stupidity!

Amazingly most punters fail to learn from their mistakes. They continue for years making the same basic errors time and time again. Pure stupidity.

Strive to improve your betting performance by continually learning from the mistakes and weakness is your game.

Your bookmaker may have been laughing at you for years. You have it in your power however to improve your betting and hopefully wipe that smile from his face for good.